Yesterday was Anita Baker’s birthday. Know how I know? Musical ESP struck again.

I was picking a song to play while we were having wake up coffee. I wanted to listen to “Both Hands” by Ani DiFranco. I opened the Apple Music app on my phone and started searching. A…n…i… I saw Anita Baker’s name for a sec as search results populated. I kept going …space…D…i… and then thought, “Y’know, “Sweet Love” by Anita Baker is a good song. I know Husband likes it. I’ll play that instead of “Both Hands” by Ani DiFranco.” I backspaced, picked Anita Baker, and played “Sweet Love.” Her profile in Apple Music said that she was born in Toledo, Ohio. “Huh. That’s interesting,” I thought. “I never knew Anita Baker was from Ohio.” The song played and I always like singing along to the line, “Hear me calling out your name, I feel no shame.” (Although I’ve always gotten that lyric wrong and still sing it as, “And in calling out your name…”) Then I saw her birthday was in January. The gears in my brain turned a little and I saw the date. And it clicked. It was her birthday. How often might that happen? I mean, seriously. What is the calculated probability of:

  1. Wanting to listen to music by one artist
  2. Beginning to search for music by that artist
  3. Seeing another artist's name
  4. Feeling rather suddenly compelled to listen to music by that artist
  5. Playing a song by that artist as the first song of your day
  6. Finding out while the song plays that that artist's birthday is the same day
According to Claude:
  • The probability of playing any artist on their birthday is 1/365.
  • Selection bias is a thing (which I know).
  • Brains look for and find patterns (which I know).
  • Frequency illusion (Baader-Meinhof) is a think (which I know but didn't know it was called that).
  • Sample size matters - how many times it doesn't happen matters as much as (or more than) how much it does happen.
  • Confirmation bias is a thing (duh).
I fed it some specific examples and ultimately here's where it landed:
I think what you're experiencing is a combination of:
  1. Genuine low-probability coincidences that do happen (1 in 365, 1 in 300, etc.)—and you're noticing them because you're attentive and reflective
  2. Possible subconscious environmental cuing (seasonal music patterns, cultural moments, ambient sounds you're not consciously registering)
  3. A brain that's exceptionally good at pattern recognition—which, given you're neurodivergent, tracks
So, no actual musical ESP.

Hm. Sure, Jan. Whatever you say.

Math You @WiredDifferently